Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:16:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23f9…3c2d sports 317 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,373 (-5%) realized −$3,875 · open −$498
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%121W / 172L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$1,425est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$5,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$256
7 days+$1,283
14 days+$660
30 days−$1,964
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$3,965
other 12% −$1,054
crypto 0% −$32
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +24.1% +12.3% 37% 37% +0.5%
≤30d 83 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 33% -16.0%
≤90d 293 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 41% -14.4%
all 293 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 41% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 41% -14.4%
10% -15.6% 41% -22.6%
15% -23.7% 41% -30.1%
20% -31.2% 41% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$377 vs −$292 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$5,148
Realized−$3,875
Unrealized−$498
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses121 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,425
Open positions24
Markets (closed)293 / 317
History coverage80d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 293 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $620 $585 −$35 (-6%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $420 $415 −$5 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 40¢ $290 $395 +$105 (+36%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $335 $332 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 33¢ 32¢ $330 $315 −$15 (-5%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $320 $310 −$10 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $280 $275 −$5 (-2%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $258 $255 −$3 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $230 $198 −$32 (-14%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $180 −$20 (-10%)
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Brazil 18¢ 18¢ $178 $175 −$3 (-2%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $175 −$25 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $170 −$10 (-6%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $180 $165 −$15 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $152 +$28 (+22%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $150 −$50 (-25%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $150 $125 −$25 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $100 −$100 (-50%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 166 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $380 −$25 -7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $368 −$360 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $447 −$440 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $387 −$380 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $118 −$115 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $457 −$450 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $296 +$704 +238%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$298 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 +$513 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 −$400 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $72 −$70 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $82 −$80 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $327 −$320 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $316 +$684 +216%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $102 +$398 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $377 +$623 +165%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $327 +$673 +206%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $276 −$270 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $195 +$805 +414%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $113 −$110 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $276 −$270 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $467 −$460 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $296 −$290 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $347 −$340 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $537 +$663 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $561 +$639 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $537 +$663 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $316 −$310 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $195 +$805 +414%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $397 −$390 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $447 −$440 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 13 $148 −$145 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 13 $387 −$380 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $754 −$742 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $397 +$603 +152%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $427 −$420 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $377 +$623 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $501 +$699 +140%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 10 $34 −$33 -97%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 10 $66 −$64 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 10 $165 −$161 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 10 $245 −$240 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 10 $387 −$380 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 09 $201 +$306 +152%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 08 $95 −$93 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 08 $342 −$334 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 08 $51 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 08 $126 −$123 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 08 $347 −$340 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $216 59m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $48 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $27 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $22 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 18¢ $96 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 17¢ $0 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 17¢ $37 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 33¢ $337 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $427 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $296 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $288 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $355 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $329 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $165 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 1h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $185 1h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $154 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $380 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 2h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $368 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,147.51 · official $5,207.51 · 794 history records