Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:56:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23f9…f183 politics 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$3
other 21% −$6
world 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 19 -7.2% -16.1% 11% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 17
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage233d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $229 $229 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $188 $188 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $158 $158 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 02 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $20 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $409 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 19 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 16 $460 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 15 $481 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Jan 15 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $482 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $482 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 12 $482 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $483 $0 -0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Jan 09 $19 $0 +0%
SpaceX goes public through Bill Ackman "SPAR" company? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 25 $19 $0 +2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Nov Oct 31 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $158 22m
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 1h
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $188 1h
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $12 139d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $12 139d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $12 139d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $12 139d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $20 146d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $20 146d
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 146d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $408 152d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $80 152d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $409 152d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $80 152d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $489 153d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $370 153d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 153d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $30 156d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $460 156d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 156d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $30 156d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $481 157d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 157d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $481 157d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $481 158d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $482 158d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $482 159d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $128 159d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $354 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.02 · official $575.02 (match) · 50 history records