Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:13:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23f7…cb68 sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 732d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,391 (-9%) realized −$1,994 · open +$603
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%35W / 65L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$160per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$215est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$883
7 days−$540
14 days−$540
30 days−$540
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,371
politics 9% −$8
economics 4% −$1
other 3% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.9% -19.3% 39% 39% -16.3%
≤30d 31 -10.9% -19.3% 39% 39% -16.3%
≤90d 54 +2.5% -7.2% 43% 41% -19.5%
all 100 -10.7% -19.2% 35% 33% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 33% -20.2%
10% -27.0% 30% -27.9%
15% -34.0% 26% -34.8%
20% -40.5% 20% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$78 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

732d coverage
Net worth$1,137
Realized−$1,994
Unrealized+$603
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses35 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$215
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage732d
Avg bet$160
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 47¢ 100¢ $535 $1,137 +$603 (+113%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $894 −$59 -7%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $102 −$11 -11%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $32 +$21 +66%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $827 −$473 -57%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $39 −$39 -99%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $87 −$74 -85%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $112 −$76 -68%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $37 −$36 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $31 +$13 +43%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $101 −$38 -37%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $139 −$8 -6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $183 −$114 -62%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $36 +$19 +54%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $31 −$12 -38%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $304 +$130 +43%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $54 +$46 +86%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $20 +$15 +73%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $4 −$2 -43%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $312 −$117 -37%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $291 +$45 +16%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$18 -36%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $16 −$3 -19%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $88 −$87 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 +$6 +52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $58 −$13 -22%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $149 −$132 -89%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $169 +$165 +98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $202 +$97 +48%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $154 +$190 +124%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $43 +$52 +122%
Olympique de Marseille vs. OGC Nice: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $801 −$791 -99%
Torino FC vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $197 −$193 -98%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Nantes: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $240 −$240 -100%
Aalesunds FK vs. Kristiansund BK: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $300 −$55 -18%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $558 −$228 -41%
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $96 −$18 -18%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $62 +$13 +21%
VfL Bochum vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $110 +$88 +80%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $56 +$142 +254%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $609 +$190 +31%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 26 $96 −$56 -58%
Ulsan HD FC vs. Daejeon Hana Citizen FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $56 +$142 +254%
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $12 +$28 +230%
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $98 +$48 +49%
Sydney FC vs. Auckland FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $108 +$92 +85%
FC Juárez vs. Atlético San Luis: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $294 −$294 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $265 −$265 -100%
Seattle Sounders FC vs. FC Dallas: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $175 −$61 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $210 16m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $221 20m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $626 21m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 27¢ $91 22m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $543 26m
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $404 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $269 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $90 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $33 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $69 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $87 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $8 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Over $0 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $13 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $36 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $336 1h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $334 2h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 6.5 BUY Over $37 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 13¢ $39 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 26¢ $87 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $112 8h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $213 8h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $44 9h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 69¢ $31 10h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 59¢ $33 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 42¢ $27 11h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 44¢ $30 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,137.30 · official $1,132.18 (match) · 546 history records