Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:27:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23f2…04d4
other · 17 markets active 2h ago
6.0score
+$2 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 17
History coverage19d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 5 History 12 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+28%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ 81¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? Jun 03 $1 $0 +28%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o Jun 03 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% +$1
crypto 17% $0
politics 14% $0
sports 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 17h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $2 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 36h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $1 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 72¢ $1 9d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 9d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o SELL Yes 98¢ $3 9d
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $4 12d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o BUY Yes 37¢ $1 15d
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o BUY Yes 36¢ $1 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 16d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid BUY Yes 63¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 57¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +31.5% +18.9% 67% 67% +14.1%
≤30d 12 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 58% -1.7%
≤90d 12 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 58% -1.7%
all 12 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 58% -1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.4% 58% -1.7%
10% +6.2% 50% -11.1%
15% -4.1% 42% -19.7%
20% -13.5% 42% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.28 · official $6.28 (match) · 29 history records