Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:52:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x23f1…d04c politics 174 markets active 2h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,996 (+1%) realized +$1,996 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%33W / 141L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$44
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$138
other 32% +$528
sports 13% +$1,583
culture 4% −$12
economics 3% −$8
world 3% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 60 +1.5% -8.2% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 123 -5.9% -14.9% 8% 5% -9.0%
all 174 +3.8% -6.1% 19% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 10% -8.8%
10% -15.1% 10% -17.6%
15% -23.3% 10% -25.5%
20% -30.8% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,015) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$8 · ×11.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.72 per $1 lost it wins $2.72
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,996
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses33 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)174 / 174
History coverage139d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 174 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,311 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,448 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,296 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,139 −$7 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,590 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $663 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,961 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,891 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,740 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $806 −$1 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $57 −$57 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $3,013 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $8,653 −$10 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $46 +$67 +146%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,885 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,810 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $39 +$59 +152%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $252 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $349 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $1,119 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $7,015 −$8 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $407 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1,465 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $4,494 −$6 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $430 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,679 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $2,738 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,737 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $319 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $319 3h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $418 6h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $331 6h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $332 9h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $875 26h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $876 26h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $822 29h
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $823 32h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $963 2d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $965 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $890 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $891 2d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,007 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $662 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $663 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $583 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $584 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $740 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $741 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $828 6d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $830 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $813 6d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $814 6d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $691 7d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $692 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $748 7d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $749 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 606 history records