Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.0
score
23 0x23ee…15cb other 99 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$2,313 (+7%) realized +$2,535 · open −$222
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%44W / 39L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$331per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$2,573now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,608
7 days+$1,672
14 days+$1,672
30 days+$1,099
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$2,017
sports 36% +$1,050
world 2% +$26
politics 1% −$80
crypto 0% +$131
culture 0% −$26
economics 0% −$38
tech 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +184.3% +157.3% 77% 77% +19.2%
≤30d 14 +164.0% +138.9% 71% 71% +7.5%
≤90d 27 +78.7% +61.7% 56% 56% -2.6%
all 83 +28.6% +16.4% 53% 47% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 47% +0.5%
10% +5.2% 45% -9.1%
15% -4.9% 43% -17.9%
20% -14.3% 40% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late +38% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$284 vs −$237 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$2,573
Realized+$2,535
Unrealized−$222
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses44 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions11
Markets (closed)83 / 99
History coverage235d
Avg bet$331
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $980 $990 +$10 (+1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $480 $470 −$10 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $410 $405 −$5 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 34¢ 34¢ $340 $345 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 30¢ $298 $284 −$14 (-5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $47 $55 +$8 (+18%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $13 $5 −$8 (-59%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 65¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $51 +$231 +450%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $346 +$254 +73%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $103 +$746 +726%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $776 +$524 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 +$197 +191%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $254 +$246 +97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $56 +$444 +785%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,792 −$1,774 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $480 −$380 -79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $109 +$91 +83%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $374 +$426 +114%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 14 $799 +$701 +88%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $573 −$573 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 01 $249 −$245 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 20 $31 +$67 +216%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 04 $40 −$26 -65%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $234 +$102 +44%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" or "Peace Deal" during Address to the Natio Apr 02 $114 −$114 -100%
Will Vance visit the Middle East by March 31? Apr 02 $394 +$87 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? Apr 02 $96 −$96 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 26 $14 +$6 +43%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) Mar 26 $142 −$142 -100%
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Mar 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Mar 26 $102 −$102 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026? Mar 26 $54 +$146 +270%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 28 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $480 +$520 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 23 $13 +$36 +286%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $18 +$15 +83%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-26? Feb 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "ISIS" during Syria President events on November Feb 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Fogo FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 23 $74 −$74 -100%
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Feb 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $240 −$240 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 23 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-17? Feb 23 $245 −$245 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $235 −$235 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $300 −$300 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 23 $306 −$306 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 23 $38 −$38 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 3.5 Jan 29 $295 +$205 +70%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11? Jan 12 $725 +$775 +107%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 09 $146 −$146 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 03 $542 +$46 +8%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jan 03 $48 +$4 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 35m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2 BUY 6¢ $51 36m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $104 38m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $98 39m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $313 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 10¢ $103 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 65¢ $197 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Ha BUY 9¢ $21 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $206 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? AND Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR BUY 4¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Spread: England (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $102 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $50 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $48 25h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $346 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina BUY 12¢ $103 25h
France leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $254 25h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY 18¢ $51 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $179 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $597 25h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 34¢ $102 37h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 34¢ $34 41h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $56 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 34¢ $3 2d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 34¢ $205 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $995 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $491 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,572.59 · official $2,852.69 · 604 history records