Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23ed…ded5 crypto 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$576 (+2%) realized +$704 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate51%53W / 51L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$243per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$189
crypto 18% +$8
world 14% −$20
sports 10% +$466
other 8% +$216
tech 1% −$2
economics 1% +$2
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.8% -12.0% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 32 -5.9% -14.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 40 -5.8% -14.8% 15% 0% -10.0%
all 104 +1.8% -7.9% 51% 12% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 12% -7.3%
10% -16.7% 12% -16.2%
15% -24.7% 12% -24.3%
20% -32.1% 11% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$30 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$704
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses53 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage612d
Avg bet$243
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 81¢ 80¢ $325 $319 −$6 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 50¢ 20¢ $200 $78 −$122 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 22 $3 $0 -13%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 22 $48 $0 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 22 $45 −$3 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Jun 22 $144 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $184 +$2 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $194 −$4 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $148 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $110 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $52 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 12 $72 −$3 -5%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $1,146 +$11 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $238 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $142 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? May 25 $7 −$1 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 25 $2 $0 -3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 25 $9 $0 -2%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? May 25 $11 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? May 25 $16 $0 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 25 $128 −$4 -3%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between May 25 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Kristian Gkolomeev win the 50m freestyle at the 2026 Enhanced Gam May 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 25 $194 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? May 25 $134 +$1 +1%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 7? May 07 $65 $0 +0%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 09 $44 −$1 -2%
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17? Apr 09 $9 −$2 -28%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 09 $36 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $327 +$1 +0%
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by Ap Apr 09 $11 $0 -4%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 10? Apr 09 $127 −$11 -9%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Apr 09 $421 +$2 +0%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $4 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 08 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 28 $768 +$1 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 17 $405 −$5 -1%
Dota 2: Valinor vs L1ga Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Feb 17 $119 −$119 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 17 $8 +$5 +65%
LoL: Lille Esport vs BK ROG Esports (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Gro Feb 17 $156 −$156 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Feb 17 $239 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Feb 17 $239 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 10m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 12m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 93¢ $11 13m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 93¢ $11 15m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $0 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $6 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $1 16m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $2 16m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 5¢ $3 20m
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 29m
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 6¢ $3 31m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 95¢ $48 32m
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 96¢ $48 46m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 42¢ $42 51m
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $45 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? SELL No 85¢ $144 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $186 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? BUY No 85¢ $144 9d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $184 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? SELL No 51¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.60 · official $396.60 (match) · 990 history records