trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 8 | -6.4% | -15.4% | 25% | 0% | -10.7% |
| ≤90d | 8 | -6.4% | -15.4% | 25% | 0% | -10.7% |
| all | 23 | -9.0% | -17.7% | 35% | 0% | -14.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.7% | 0% | -14.6% |
| 10% | -25.6% | 0% | -22.8% |
| 15% | -32.8% | 0% | -30.3% |
| 20% | -39.4% | 0% | -37.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 90¢ | $35 | $34 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 27 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 26 | $3 | −$1 | -26% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $9 | −$2 | -23% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $42 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 25 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 25 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $44 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 24 | $20 | $0 | -2% |
| Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? | Dec 17 | $32 | −$32 | -100% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Nov 20 | $33 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Nov 19 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? | Oct 13 | $34 | +$2 | +5% |
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Sep 09 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Sep 08 | $3 | −$2 | -65% |
| Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Aug 23 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31? | Aug 23 | $34 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 US Open? | Aug 22 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? | Aug 22 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? | Aug 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump meet with Pope Leo in August? | Aug 21 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? | Aug 21 | $40 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | Aug 21 | $5 | $0 | +0% |