Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23e6…7bbf other 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 248d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,841 (-29%) realized −$2,850 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,311
politics 19% −$1,545
sports 17% −$198
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +20.1% +8.7% 37% 37% -7.8%
≤30d 34 +16.5% +5.4% 35% 35% -11.3%
≤90d 121 -39.6% -45.4% 21% 21% -60.4%
all 192 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 44% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 44% -38.0%
10% -23.1% 42% -43.9%
15% -30.6% 35% -49.4%
20% -37.4% 27% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$51 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

248d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$2,850
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 107
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)192 / 193
History coverage248d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 23¢ 30¢ $31 $40 +$9 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $54 +$46 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $69 −$68 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Endrick: 1+ goals Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $29 +$46 +162%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$70 +238%
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -98%
Harry Kane: 2+ goals Jun 17 $46 +$191 +414%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $44 −$36 -82%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$33 +188%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 +$10 +58%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 −$14 -99%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$95 +639%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$29 +266%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 +$18 +123%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 +$6 +53%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $57 −$56 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $31 +$27 +86%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $17 −$1 -4%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-04-21? Apr 20 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $34 +$20 +57%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $20 +$14 +70%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $162 −$160 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $369 −$257 -70%
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro again by December 31? Apr 12 $17 +$9 +54%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-01-25? Apr 12 $0 $0 -100%
Barcelona vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-11-04? Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 7? Apr 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-05? Apr 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $69 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $22 7h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $13 14h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $14 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $43 18h
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $49 19h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $54 19h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $24 21h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $45 22h
Endrick: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $14 22h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $9 30h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 75¢ $72 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 75¢ $3 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $29 37h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $19 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 2.5 BUY Over 16¢ $48 42h
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $0 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $7 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $30 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 79¢ $25 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 79¢ $134 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 79¢ $10 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals SELL Yes 79¢ $68 2d
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $11 2d
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $36 2d
Luis Díaz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY Yes 15¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.74 · official $39.74 (match) · 1186 history records