Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x23e4…e501 sports 177 markets active 5h ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$87 (+0%) realized +$94 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%74W / 101L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$370per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$1,374est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$343now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$379
7 days+$1,683
14 days−$1,184
30 days+$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$569
other 24% −$209
world 0% −$85
crypto 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +19.0% +7.7% 38% 31% +4.1%
≤30d 128 +7.8% -2.5% 42% 39% -8.5%
≤90d 175 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 40% -10.7%
all 175 +4.1% -5.8% 42% 40% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 40% -10.7%
10% -14.8% 38% -19.2%
15% -23.1% 35% -27.0%
20% -30.6% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$510) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$310 vs −$236 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$343
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses74 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$1,374
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 177
History coverage36d
Avg bet$370
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $350 $343 −$7 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $765 −$765 -100%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $458 −$35 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,243 +$1,179 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1,511 −$1,511 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $512 −$24 -5%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,631 +$2,814 +172%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $154 +$808 +525%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $421 −$421 -100%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 12 $719 −$719 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $1,020 −$70 -7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $809 +$206 +25%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $255 −$255 -100%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $357 −$357 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $762 +$867 +114%
Ilkley: Hamish Stewart vs Leandro Riedi Jun 10 $306 −$55 -18%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $229 +$23 +10%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $602 −$602 -100%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Renata Zarazua Jun 09 $564 −$564 -100%
Ilkley: Iryna Shymanovich vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 09 $755 +$488 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $408 −$27 -7%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $510 −$60 -12%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $684 −$684 -100%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Jason Jung Jun 09 $288 −$288 -100%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $643 −$643 -100%
Ilkley: Lucrezia Stefanini vs Vendula Valdmannova Jun 09 $714 +$765 +107%
Libema Open: Jaume Munar vs Martin Damm Jun 09 $508 −$26 -5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,015 −$534 -53%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $457 −$457 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $1,065 −$51 -5%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $511 −$106 -21%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $621 +$205 +33%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 08 $686 −$686 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $102 −$102 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $440 −$440 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $153 +$213 +140%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,518 +$576 +38%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $568 −$568 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $775 +$350 +45%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $558 −$558 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $307 +$353 +115%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $467 +$267 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 04 $162 −$162 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $407 +$291 +71%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $508 +$186 +37%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $985 +$608 +62%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev Jun 01 $345 −$345 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $407 +$217 +53%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $154 −$93 -61%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $442 +$682 +154%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,017 +$1,308 +129%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $358 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $255 17h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Aleksandar Kovacevic 37¢ $423 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $510 26h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 39¢ $204 27h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Aleksandar Kovacevic 38¢ $255 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $1,944 37h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $367 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $367 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 38¢ $478 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $255 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $255 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 21¢ $2 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $486 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $488 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1,023 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 20¢ $512 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $510 4d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 20¢ $205 4d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 38¢ $194 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,121 4d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian 17¢ $82 5d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian 30¢ $84 5d
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter BUY Jaqueline Cristian 31¢ $255 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United BUY 16¢ $154 5d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 26¢ $16 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on BUY 22¢ $102 5d
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 44¢ $305 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz SELL Martin Landaluce 31¢ $460 5d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Martin Landaluce 33¢ $510 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $343.00 · official $343.00 (match) · 502 history records