trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +17.4% | +6.3% | 100% | 100% | +6.3% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -41.3% | -46.9% | 50% | 50% | -60.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | -41.3% | -46.9% | 50% | 50% | -60.2% |
| all | 10 | -2.2% | -11.5% | 60% | 50% | -1.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -11.5% | 50% | -1.7% |
| 10% | -20.0% | 20% | -11.1% |
| 15% | -27.7% | 20% | -19.7% |
| 20% | -34.8% | 20% | -27.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? | Jun 14 | $30 | +$5 | +17% |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | Feb 19 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Feb 19 | $20 | −$1 | -5% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Feb 19 | $30 | −$7 | -24% |
| Will the Fed cut-cut-cut in 2025? | Feb 01 | $55 | +$47 | +85% |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? | Feb 01 | $85 | +$17 | +20% |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? | Oct 19 | $55 | +$1 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? | Sep 17 | $100 | +$18 | +18% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $109 | +$70 | +65% |