Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x23e3…df59 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$145 (+13%) realized +$143 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$94
crypto 30% +$206
sports 4% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +50.8% +36.4% 100% 100% +18.2%
≤90d 3 +50.8% +36.4% 100% 100% +18.2%
all 8 +24.7% +12.8% 62% 62% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.8% 62% +4.5%
10% +2.0% 50% -5.5%
15% -7.8% 50% -14.7%
20% -16.9% 38% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$40 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.2 per $1 lost it wins $2.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$143
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage246d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $215 $217 +$2 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $31 +$23 +73%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $18 +$11 +62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $141 +$24 +17%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Nov 21 $197 +$91 +46%
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? Nov 04 $145 +$115 +80%
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? Oct 25 $150 −$62 -42%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Oct 24 $150 −$56 -38%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Oct 21 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $187 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $31 11d
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $18 12d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 85¢ $141 12d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? SELL 80k 91¢ $288 211d
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $260 228d
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $145 231d
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? SELL No 24¢ $88 238d
Cardano ETF in 2025? SELL No 27¢ $94 239d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 80k 63¢ $98 243d
Pepe ETF in 2025? SELL No 92¢ $98 243d
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? BUY 80k 62¢ $99 243d
Pepe ETF in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $100 244d
Cardano ETF in 2025? BUY No 40¢ $50 246d
Cardano ETF in 2025? BUY No 44¢ $100 246d
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? BUY No 46¢ $50 246d
Litecoin ETF approved in 2025? BUY No 39¢ $100 246d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $216.74 · official $216.74 (match) · 23 history records