Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23e2…7f4e other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$294 (-41%) realized −$291 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -68% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -72% what you keep after slip
Net edge-72%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$311
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-70.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -67.7% -70.7% 0% 0% -64.8%
≤30d 3 -67.7% -70.7% 0% 0% -64.8%
≤90d 3 -67.7% -70.7% 0% 0% -64.8%
all 3 -67.7% -70.7% 0% 0% -64.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -70.7% 0% -64.8%
10% -73.5% 0% -68.2%
15% -76.1% 0% -71.2%
20% -78.4% 0% -74.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -61% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -68% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$102 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage2d
Avg bet$143
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 −$6 -3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $201 −$201 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $196 32h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $107 33h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $202 33h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.80 · official $196.80 (match) · 7 history records