Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23e2…9ecd sports 723 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,126 (-5%) realized −$1,127 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%367W / 344L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$121est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$195
7 days−$141
14 days−$47
30 days−$541
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% −$379
other 34% −$668
crypto 22% −$256
world 1% +$14
weather 1% +$13
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.9% -10.3% 46% 38% -15.9%
≤30d 147 -12.3% -20.6% 48% 43% -15.8%
≤90d 299 -11.4% -19.9% 46% 40% -18.9%
all 711 -9.0% -17.6% 52% 43% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 43% -14.6%
10% -25.5% 35% -22.8%
15% -32.7% 27% -30.2%
20% -39.3% 20% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized−$1,127
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses367 / 344
Est. fees paid−$121
Open positions12
Markets (closed)711 / 723
History coverage150d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 711 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-3.5) Iraq 73¢ 82¢ $73 $82 +$10 (+13%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $56 $63 +$7 (+13%)
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ 57¢ $57 $57 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) Iraq 34¢ 56¢ $34 $56 +$22 (+66%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 30¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $40 $23 −$17 (-42%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $26 $13 −$13 (-50%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 31¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+94%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 +$11 +566%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $329 +$107 +33%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $28 −$28 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $292 −$292 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $23 −$3 -14%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$116 +153%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $112 −$81 -72%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $58 +$47 +81%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $171 +$229 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $134 +$165 +123%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $156 +$13 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +109%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $43 +$8 +18%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $69 +$15 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 −$43 -43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $305 +$255 +84%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $120 −$120 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $182 −$182 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $11 +$9 +81%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $42 +$5 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $39 −$19 -50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $74 +$25 +34%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 $0 +54%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $4 +$2 +41%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$86 +85%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $51 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $62 +$22 +35%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $128 +$169 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 34¢ $15 36m
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY Iraq 34¢ $19 36m
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY Iraq 73¢ $74 40m
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $30 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $100 24h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $19 24h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $226 24h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 7¢ $22 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $192 47h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $229 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $292 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 13¢ $32 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $19 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $43 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $16 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $79 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $0 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $15 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 81¢ $90 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $58 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $45 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.97 · official $396.98 (match) · 2523 history records