Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23df…c7a8 sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,030 (-4%) realized −$811 · open −$219
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate66%58W / 30L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$3,434now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,236
7 days−$176
14 days−$176
30 days−$176
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,116
other 46% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -6.9% -15.8% 70% 50% -11.5%
≤30d 10 -6.9% -15.8% 70% 50% -11.5%
≤90d 12 -22.4% -29.8% 58% 42% -15.0%
all 88 -3.2% -12.4% 66% 58% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 58% -13.1%
10% -20.8% 35% -21.5%
15% -28.4% 22% -29.0%
20% -35.4% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$248 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$3,434
Realized−$811
Unrealized−$219
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses58 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions10
Markets (closed)88 / 98
History coverage205d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1,000 $1,007 +$7 (+1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 Over 89¢ 88¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 68¢ $400 $304 −$96 (-24%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 38¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 21¢ 14¢ $53 $37 −$16 (-31%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 19¢ $101 $6 −$95 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $503 +$107 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $503 +$146 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $501 +$37 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$59 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $536 +$292 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $504 +$200 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-09? Mar 24 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? Mar 24 $227 −$227 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 20 $200 +$15 +8%
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova Jan 16 $150 +$38 +25%
Arsenal FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys Jan 09 $200 +$44 +22%
Brisbane International: Marta Kostyuk vs Amanda Anisimova Jan 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Brisbane International: Elena Rybakina vs Paula Badosa Jan 08 $50 +$12 +24%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jan 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Jan 08 $140 +$14 +10%
Manchester City FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 Jan 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Cristina Bucsa Jan 06 $100 +$11 +11%
Warriors vs. Clippers Jan 05 $50 +$2 +4%
76ers vs. Thunder Jan 05 $404 −$404 -100%
Eagles vs. Bills Jan 05 $602 −$602 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Texans vs. Chargers Dec 28 $200 −$200 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Dec 28 $478 −$478 -100%
Giants vs. Raiders Dec 28 $24 +$7 +29%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $100 +$308 +308%
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 27 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-27? Dec 27 $100 +$56 +56%
Liverpool FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 27 $200 +$28 +14%
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 27 $500 +$119 +24%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 27 $300 −$300 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 27 $500 +$104 +21%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-26? Dec 26 $500 −$500 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Dec 26 $100 +$321 +321%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South? Dec 22 $100 +$32 +32%
Bulls vs. Hawks Dec 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Patriots vs. Ravens Dec 22 $100 +$138 +138%
Steelers vs. Lions Dec 22 $500 +$49 +10%
Bills vs. Browns Dec 21 $700 +$201 +29%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $500 +$555 +111%
Everton FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 21 $100 +$39 +38%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Dec 20 $100 +$83 +83%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 Dec 20 $500 +$95 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $401 1h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $404 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $406 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $401 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $504 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $503 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $503 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $1,013 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $102 37h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $506 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1,002 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $501 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $504 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,005 4d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes $2 148d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 148d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 71¢ $200 148d
Thunder vs. Cavaliers BUY Thunder 93¢ $200 149d
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Karolina Muchova BUY Sabalenka 80¢ $150 159d
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-09? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 159d
Will Wrexham AFC win on 2026-01-09? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 159d
Brisbane International: Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys BUY Sabalenka 82¢ $200 160d
Brisbane International: Marta Kostyuk vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Anisimova 70¢ $100 160d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,434.39 · official $3,434.39 (match) · 229 history records