Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x23dc…ad23 crypto 1174 markets active 0h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$167 (+3%) realized +$173 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%619W / 524L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$10
14 days−$74
30 days+$247
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$218
other 7% −$23
weather 2% −$16
world 1% −$12
politics 0% +$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 249 -0.4% -9.9% 65% 65% -8.8%
≤30d 919 +3.8% -6.1% 57% 57% -5.1%
≤90d 1143 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 54% -6.6%
all 1143 -0.3% -9.8% 54% 54% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 54% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 54% -15.6%
15% -26.3% 49% -23.7%
20% -33.5% 45% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$173
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses619 / 524
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1143 / 1174
History coverage40d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 76¢ 85¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 75¢ 84¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 61¢ 61¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 83¢ 93¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 81¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 73¢ 18¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-75%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +30%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +59%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +43%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +32%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +39%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +59%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +56%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 12m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 13m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 55m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 55m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 58m
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $0 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $4 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.35 · official $45.28 (match) · 1896 history records