Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23db…cf1c
weather · 193 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,234 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,223 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$38
Realized−$1,223
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses135 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)180 / 193
History coverage54d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 13 History 180 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$378
14 days−$256
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Yes 95¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Yes 94¢ 38¢ $8 $3 −$5 (-59%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? No 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Yes 75¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? No 95¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 12? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 11? No 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? No 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Yes 84¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Yes 90¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $4 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $26 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $11 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $38 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 12 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$3 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $54 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $27 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $26 +$4 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $32 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$6 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 −$30 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $37 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 51% −$630
world 21% +$127
politics 10% −$322
other 8% −$107
economics 5% −$264
tech 3% −$19
crypto 1% −$16
sports 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 8m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 31m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $3 36m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $2 36m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 40m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 80¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 145 -6.8% -15.6% 84% 23% -24.0%
≤30d 158 -7.5% -16.3% 81% 23% -19.1%
≤90d 180 -11.7% -20.1% 75% 22% -27.3%
all 180 -11.7% -20.1% 75% 22% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 22% -27.3%
10% -27.8% 1% -34.2%
15% -34.8% 1% -40.6%
20% -41.2% 1% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.68 · official $37.68 (match) · 789 history records