Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:04:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x23da…f526 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%29W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$5
crypto 2% +$3
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 2 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 30 +4.2% -5.7% 97% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 3% -9.6%
10% -14.8% 3% -18.2%
15% -23.0% 3% -26.1%
20% -30.6% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses29 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage199d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 18? No 100¢ 98¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 18? No 96¢ 96¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 24? May 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 25? Mar 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on February 22? Mar 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 24? Mar 15 $4 $0 +8%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 27 $5,020 −$5 -0%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 28? Dec 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 28? Dec 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on December 28? Dec 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 24? Dec 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 24? Dec 24 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on December 24? Dec 24 $4 $0 +7%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 24? Dec 24 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 16? Dec 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 16? Dec 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 16? Dec 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on December 16? Dec 21 $2 +$2 +94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16? Dec 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.60 on December 10? Dec 11 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on December 10? Dec 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on December 10? Dec 11 $4 $0 +2%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 10? Dec 11 $4 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on December 6? Dec 08 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on December 6? Dec 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $82,000 on December 6? Dec 08 $9 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 in November? Dec 03 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $3 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 24d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $4 24d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 25? BUY No 100¢ $4 112d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on February 22? BUY No 100¢ $4 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 24? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 115d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,015 140d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,020 140d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 167d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $4 167d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $4 168d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $3 168d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.20 and $2.30 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 171d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $4 171d
Will the price of XRP be above $2.20 on December 28? BUY No 100¢ $5 172d
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on December 24? BUY No 98¢ $3 175d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 24? BUY No 98¢ $4 175d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on December 24? BUY No 94¢ $4 176d
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 24? BUY No 100¢ $3 176d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on December 16? BUY No 52¢ $2 182d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 182d
Will the price of Solana be between $170 and $180 on December 16? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on December 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 182d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 16? BUY No 99¢ $4 182d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.60 on December 10? BUY No 99¢ $3 189d
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on December 10? BUY No 99¢ $4 189d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on December 10? BUY No 98¢ $4 189d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on December 10? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 189d
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on December 6? BUY No 99¢ $3 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.22 · official $6.22 (match) · 66 history records