Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23d8…31c5 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4
politics 20% $0
other 14% −$15
sports 7% $0
economics 5% $0
culture 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.6% -11.0% 12% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 9% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 11 -2.2% -11.5% 9% 0% -10.5%
all 51 -1.9% -11.2% 31% 2% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -11.3%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage295d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $70 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $61 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $37 −$5 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $36 +$2 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $27 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $7 $0 +2%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 24 $28 −$15 -55%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Nov 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 24 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 23 $4 $0 -2%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 06 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 24 $5 $0 +2%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $2 $0 +3%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Sep 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $17 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 11 $22 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Sep 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 02 $23 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 29 $15 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Chow Hang‑tung win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $16 $0 -0%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 27 $16 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $32 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $31 31h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $31 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $22 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $2 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 72¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 69¢ $36 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $27 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $27 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $39 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $39 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.49 · official $32.49 (match) · 159 history records