Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23d8…0288
politics · 77 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$27,507 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$46,804 · open +$1,527
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$322,220
Realized+$46,804
Unrealized+$1,527
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses34 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions50
Markets (closed)67 / 77
History coverage38d
Avg bet$11,046
Trades / day86.8
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 50 History 67 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10,770
7 days−$3,978
14 days+$59,963
30 days+$84,204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 93¢ 96¢ $262,461 $269,957 +$7,496 (+3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 9¢ 74¢ $1,972 $16,269 +$14,297 (+725%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 88¢ $7,740 $10,500 +$2,760 (+36%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 36¢ 88¢ $2,745 $6,792 +$4,048 (+147%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 30% or more? No 58¢ 99¢ $3,512 $6,008 +$2,496 (+71%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $4,282 $5,231 +$949 (+22%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 80¢ 97¢ $1,743 $2,118 +$375 (+22%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 45¢ 99¢ $900 $1,981 +$1,081 (+120%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? No 66¢ 98¢ $619 $920 +$301 (+49%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 59¢ 59¢ $724 $724 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 26¢ 9¢ $1,692 $555 −$1,137 (-67%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? No 71¢ 100¢ $286 $402 +$116 (+40%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 28¢ 2¢ $4,513 $279 −$4,234 (-94%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 5¢ 1¢ $983 $117 −$867 (-88%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $12,865 $115 −$12,750 (-99%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $240 $30 −$210 (-87%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by 9% or more? No 19¢ 0¢ $1,876 $24 −$1,852 (-99%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $17 $18 +$0 (+2%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $349 $12 −$337 (-96%)
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $606 $10 −$596 (-98%)
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $606 $10 −$596 (-98%)
Will James Thomas Bryer win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $606 $10 −$596 (-98%)
Will John Skipworth win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $606 $10 −$596 (-98%)
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by between 25% and 30%? No 93¢ 1¢ $652 $6 −$646 (-99%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $224 $6 −$219 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $873 −$873 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $34,646 −$2,134 -6%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 09 $7,525 +$475 +6%
Will Spencer Pratt finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los An Jun 09 $201 +$616 +307%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $2,050 +$5,498 +268%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 05 $1,830 +$2,012 +110%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election Jun 05 $183 +$324 +178%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 6% an Jun 05 $198 +$106 +54%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by 9% or more? Jun 05 $546 +$258 +47%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 04 $4,358 −$4,249 -98%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $10,385 +$6,115 +59%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 04 $41,301 +$18,189 +44%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $31,696 +$20,738 +65%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $29,679 +$11,706 +39%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 03 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $46,695 −$1,119 -2%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $26,312 −$8,610 -33%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $15,029 −$430 -3%
Will Park Heong-joon win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 03 $4,335 −$1,229 -28%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $18,221 +$8,857 +49%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 03 $1,940 +$810 +42%
Will Zach Lahn win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election? Jun 03 $1,081 −$358 -33%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 03 $2,053 −$2,038 -99%
Will Justin Murphy be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey? Jun 03 $954 +$760 +80%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $22,959 +$3,967 +17%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $15,362 +$1,020 +7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 01 $2,855 +$10,219 +358%
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se May 27 $325 +$235 +72%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 27 $482 +$278 +58%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4,318 +$5,831 +135%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,326 +$10,788 +813%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $6,486 +$7,318 +113%
Will John Fleming finish first in the first round of the Louisiana Rep May 16 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 12 $4,861 −$773 -16%
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2 May 11 $235 +$15 +6%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 11 $1,766 +$1,938 +110%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 11 $155 +$37 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 89% +$25,249
world 9% +$38,927
other 3% −$5,075
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,010 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $149 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $19 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $204 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $131 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $117 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $763 39h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $18 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $145 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,820 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $543 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $115 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $2,326 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $5,135 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $5,194 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $112 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $55 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $78 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $465 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $75 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $78 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $470 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $254 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $98 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 40h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+38.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -26.9% -33.8% 25% 20% -15.8%
≤30d 46 +67.7% +51.7% 48% 46% +20.5%
≤90d 67 +52.6% +38.1% 51% 42% +1.6%
all 67 +52.6% +38.1% 51% 42% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover86.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.1% 42% +1.6%
10% +24.8% 36% -8.1%
15% ← realistic here +12.8% 34% -17.0%
20% +1.7% 28% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322,220.11 · official $322,220.53 (match) · 3500 history records