Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23d8…064b crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$59 (-20%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -55.6%
≤30d 16 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -55.6%
≤90d 16 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -55.6%
all 16 -25.2% -32.3% 38% 38% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 38% -55.6%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 38% -59.9%
15% -44.7% 38% -63.7%
20% -50.1% 38% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -56% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$21 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $79 −$75 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$12 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$25 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$5 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records