Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x23d7…4b33 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$67 (+3%) realized +$72 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%6W / 4L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$177now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$54
14 days−$167
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$165
other 11% −$221
crypto 5% +$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +41.7% +28.2% 100% 100% +28.2%
≤30d 4 +26.0% +14.0% 50% 50% -19.2%
≤90d 10 +14.2% +3.3% 60% 60% -6.6%
all 10 +14.2% +3.3% 60% 60% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 60% -6.6%
10% -6.6% 50% -15.6%
15% -15.6% 50% -23.7%
20% -23.9% 20% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$144 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$177
Realized+$72
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses6 / 4
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage134d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Under 58¢ 56¢ $181 $177 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $130 +$54 +42%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$221 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) Jun 05 $51 +$134 +262%
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov Jun 05 $11 −$11 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $49 −$48 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Darderi May 13 $296 −$296 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud May 12 $449 +$96 +21%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $303 +$145 +48%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev May 11 $202 +$96 +48%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 09 $90 +$109 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $184 1h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Franco Agamenone 70¢ $130 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $222 7d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Mensik (+2.5) BUY Mensik 27¢ $51 17d
Perugia: Marco Cecchinato vs Timofey Skatov BUY Marco Cecchinato 36¢ $11 18d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi BUY Rafael Jodar 26¢ $49 40d
Set 1 Winner: Jodar vs Darderi BUY Jodar 74¢ $296 40d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 82¢ $449 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 67¢ $303 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev SELL Daniil Medvedev 100¢ $298 42d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 67¢ $202 43d
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? BUY $80k 45¢ $90 134d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.60 · official $176.63 (match) · 17 history records