Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23d7…101e sports 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$681 (+5%) realized +$428 · open +$253
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days+$715
14 days+$427
30 days+$427
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$1,515
other 44% −$1,047
crypto 2% +$212
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +23.7% +11.9% 39% 39% -3.1%
≤30d 83 +18.1% +6.9% 39% 39% -6.2%
≤90d 83 +18.1% +6.9% 39% 39% -6.2%
all 83 +18.1% +6.9% 39% 39% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.9% 39% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -3.3% 39% -15.2%
15% -12.7% 39% -23.4%
20% -21.2% 39% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$206 vs −$121 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized+$428
Unrealized+$253
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage9d
Avg bet$149
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 37¢ 100¢ $150 $403 +$253 (+168%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $213 +$297 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $434 −$424 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $184 +$218 +118%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $240 −$18 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $412 −$404 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $152 −$150 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $96 −$94 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $311 +$467 +150%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $476 −$310 -65%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $112 −$110 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $162 −$8 -5%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $184 −$13 -7%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $246 −$240 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $203 +$246 +121%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $259 −$109 -42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $131 +$173 +132%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $205 +$373 +182%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $186 +$183 +98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $121 −$118 -98%
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Jun 15 $50 +$102 +205%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $141 −$138 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $146 −$143 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $182 −$179 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $159 +$334 +210%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $254 +$222 +88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$101 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $127 +$98 +78%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $127 −$125 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 +$148 +223%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $161 −$28 -18%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $53 −$38 -71%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $56 −$6 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $400 −$394 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $122 −$120 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $201 −$198 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $116 −$113 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $439 +$318 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $127 −$125 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $172 +$184 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 40¢ $51 57m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 36¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $509 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 31¢ $95 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $102 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $81 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $131 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 7¢ $10 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 8¢ $26 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 10¢ $51 13h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $403 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $32 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $54 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $61 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $123 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $260 16h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? SELL No 27¢ $222 16h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY No 28¢ $240 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 35¢ $3 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 37¢ $61 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $1 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $51 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $152 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $56 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $240 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 15¢ $96 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 32¢ $103 20h
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 18¢ $38 21h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $778 22h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 16¢ $40 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.58 · official $402.58 (match) · 220 history records