Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23d6…18a2 sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,002 (-17%) realized −$1,155 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$580now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$360
14 days−$360
30 days−$360
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$526
crypto 14% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 33% -31.8%
≤30d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 33% -31.8%
≤90d 9 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 33% -31.8%
all 38 -39.9% -45.6% 32% 32% -25.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -45.6% 32% -25.5%
10% -50.8% 29% -32.6%
15% -55.6% 21% -39.1%
20% -59.9% 11% -45.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$84 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$580
Realized−$1,155
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)38 / 42
History coverage141d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Clara Tauson 30¢ 56¢ $100 $188 +$88 (+88%)
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs L1ga Team 47¢ 55¢ $128 $149 +$20 (+16%)
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate Tristan Schoolkate 59¢ 82¢ $100 $140 +$40 (+40%)
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A AM Gaming 30¢ 32¢ $98 $103 +$5 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $144 −$12 -8%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $102 +$142 +140%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $247 −$244 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $255 −$250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $230 +$272 +118%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $178 +$51 +28%
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $266 −$266 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 08 $303 −$303 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: European Feb 27 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Feb 26 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 21 $15 +$5 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Feb 21 $15 +$18 +120%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Kickoff Playoffs Feb 16 $400 −$286 -72%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $334 −$334 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Feb 15 $512 +$156 +30%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 15 $769 +$273 +36%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 15 $410 +$96 +23%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 15 $275 +$136 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 15 $15 −$13 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Feb 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Feb 15 $100 +$75 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11PM ET Feb 03 $164 −$34 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 03 $101 −$51 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 03 $87 +$15 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 03 $60 −$45 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 03 $40 −$36 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Feb 03 $5 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 30¢ $100 7m
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 30¢ $102 14m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 70¢ $3 58m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 47¢ $130 58m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner SELL L1ga Team 58¢ $129 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner BUY L1ga Team 62¢ $144 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner SELL 4ikibamboni 92¢ $244 1h
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 38¢ $102 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate BUY Tristan Schoolkate 59¢ $101 2h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $247 21h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 38¢ $255 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A SELL Sashi Esport 100¢ $501 21h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 45¢ $230 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos SELL OG 92¢ $228 24h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 29¢ $41 28h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 29¢ $4 28h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 29¢ $1 28h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 71¢ $160 29h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 71¢ $3 29h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 71¢ $14 29h
Valorant: REJECT vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY QT DIG∞ 44¢ $220 30h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 8¢ $8 30h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 18¢ $45 30h
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Astralis 36¢ $32 107d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Astralis 36¢ $1 107d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Astralis 36¢ $110 107d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Astralis (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 BUY Astralis 36¢ $160 107d
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: European BUY fnatic 58¢ $57 116d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $29 118d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.66 · official $579.70 (match) · 234 history records