Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:06:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23d6…a5da crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-2%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate84%70W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -7.8% -16.6% 74% 67% -16.4%
≤30d 83 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 34% -11.2%
≤90d 83 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 34% -11.2%
all 83 -3.1% -12.3% 84% 34% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -11.2%
10% -20.7% 18% -19.7%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses70 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -8%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records