Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23d0…d98b other 223 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,990 (-3%) realized −$10,069 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate62%138W / 84L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,528per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$579now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$135
14 days+$125
30 days+$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$1,041
crypto 21% −$11,700
sports 11% +$2,766
economics 4% +$370
politics 1% −$257
finance 1% +$200
tech 1% +$263
world 0% +$19
culture 0% −$525
weather 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +73.4% +56.9% 100% 100% +63.8%
≤30d 7 +20.4% +8.9% 86% 43% +29.0%
≤90d 10 +4.4% -5.5% 80% 30% -16.9%
all 222 -0.3% -9.8% 62% 29% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 29% -12.2%
10% -18.4% 19% -20.6%
15% -26.3% 16% -28.3%
20% -33.5% 12% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$359 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$579
Realized−$10,069
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses138 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage245d
Avg bet$1,528
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 84¢ 97¢ $500 $579 +$79 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +21%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 +$13 +90%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 02 $50 +$5 +10%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 01 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $397 +$2 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 09 $398 $0 +0%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 24 $253 −$252 -100%
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? Mar 12 $188 +$3 +2%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Feb 04 $115 +$49 +43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in January? Feb 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Feb 01 $13,416 +$355 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 31 $13,307 −$12,856 -97%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jan 28 $100 +$43 +43%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $10 −$7 -68%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 8, 2026? Jan 09 $198 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $2,994 +$6 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $13,418 −$9,432 -70%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jan 08 $6,585 +$479 +7%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1? Jan 07 $9,676 +$108 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January? Jan 06 $22 +$28 +127%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 mil Jan 04 $278 +$1 +0%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jan 03 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jan 02 $5,500 +$653 +12%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) Jan 02 $22,900 +$551 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $5,368 +$49 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 01 $33,819 +$599 +2%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jan 01 $50 −$18 -37%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs LNG Esports (BO5) Jan 01 $161 −$15 -9%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch? Dec 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Louisiana Tech Dec 31 $20 +$2 +12%
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $19 −$15 -78%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 30 $3,128 −$2,032 -65%
Counter-Strike: FengDa Gaming vs Just Swing (BO3) Dec 29 $30 +$22 +72%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 29 $2,936 −$832 -28%
Eagles vs. Bills Dec 29 $20 +$33 +163%
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31? Dec 29 $110 −$34 -31%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO5) Dec 28 $1,150 +$259 +22%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO5) Dec 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Dec 27 $40 +$15 +37%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Dec 26 $16,520 +$1,753 +11%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Dec 26 $50 +$19 +39%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $5 +$8 +163%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) Dec 25 $50 +$19 +39%
LoL: Team WE vs LGD Gaming (BO3) Dec 25 $102 +$98 +96%
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by December 31? Dec 25 $575 +$17 +3%
Will Trump say "Christmas" 7+ times during Christmas Eve service membe Dec 24 $13 +$3 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $201 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Detroit Tigers 96¢ $5 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $56 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 19d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $69 31d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 92¢ $23 31d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? SELL No 100¢ $400 36d
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? BUY No 99¢ $397 37d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $398 73d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $398 73d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 88d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? SELL Yes 96¢ $60 100d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? SELL Yes 95¢ $131 100d
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31? BUY Yes 94¢ $188 101d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes $90 122d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 134d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $92 135d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 136d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $11 136d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend BUY Anyones Legend 70¢ $115 137d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $3,751 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $30 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $6 141d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? BUY No 97¢ $387 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $579.46 · official $579.46 (match) · 1563 history records