Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23cc…4f5a other 388 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 33d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,172 (+12%) realized +$1,197 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%119W / 184L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day93.6pace
Fees−$57est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$201
7 days+$318
14 days−$132
30 days+$567
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$57
sports 35% +$624
crypto 19% +$99
politics 2% +$10
world 0% $0
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +16.9% +5.7% 45% 30% +29.5%
≤30d 276 -6.8% -15.6% 38% 26% -3.6%
≤90d 303 -2.8% -12.0% 39% 29% -1.6%
all 303 -2.8% -12.0% 39% 29% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 29% -1.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 22% -11.0%
15% -28.1% 19% -19.6%
20% -35.2% 17% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$9 · ×2.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,108
Realized+$1,197
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses119 / 184
Est. fees paid−$57
Open positions100
Markets (closed)303 / 388
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day93.6
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 100 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31? No 27¢ 23¢ $117 $101 −$16 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $32 $100 +$68 (+215%)
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? No 80¢ 84¢ $80 $84 +$4 (+5%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 55¢ 64¢ $55 $64 +$8 (+15%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 62¢ $52 $62 +$11 (+21%)
Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? No 70¢ 76¢ $56 $60 +$4 (+7%)
Will Trump attend 1 World Cup match? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 81¢ $53 $57 +$4 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 50¢ $36 $53 +$17 (+49%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 26¢ 44¢ $26 $44 +$18 (+67%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 38¢ $26 $43 +$17 (+64%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+16%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 37¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+18%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 33¢ 74¢ $10 $22 +$12 (+124%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 25¢ 10¢ $50 $20 −$29 (-59%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ 22¢ $22 $19 −$2 (-11%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+89%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? No 16¢ 15¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-9%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-19%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? No 8¢ 23¢ $4 $13 +$8 (+194%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 50¢ 12¢ $50 $12 −$38 (-76%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$46 +329%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$19 +177%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $19 +$32 +166%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $15 +$35 +239%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $18 +$7 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $32 +$9 +27%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $4 +$96 +2377%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $1 +$13 +894%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $41 +$59 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $39 +$9 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 25m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 8¢ $8 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $0 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 21¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 23¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $1 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $2 3h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,107.61 · official $1,101.88 (match) · 3500 history records