Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:43:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23c4…787e other 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$21
14 days−$33
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$49
sports 23% −$21
politics 9% −$7
economics 6% −$6
culture 6% −$7
crypto 4% −$5
world 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 172 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage135d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $230 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $277 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $304 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $813 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $205 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $719 −$2 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $309 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $264 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $258 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $56 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $345 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $200 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $270 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $857 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $593 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $580 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $230 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $299 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $128 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $288 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $392 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $517 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $547 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $465 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $354 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $713 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 1h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 3h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 4h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 5h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 8h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 10h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 12h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 13h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 14h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 16h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 17h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 23h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 25h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 29h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 31h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 32h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 33h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 35h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 37h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 42h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 44h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 46h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 47h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1426 history records