Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23c4…9c42 politics 987 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,224 (+4%) realized +$10,321 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate97%939W / 33L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day26.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3,160now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$604
14 days+$907
30 days+$1,267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% +$3,502
other 33% +$2,304
sports 7% +$564
world 6% +$500
crypto 5% +$78
tech 2% +$133
economics 2% +$78
finance 1% +$34
culture 0% +$14
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +1.3% -8.4% 95% 5% -7.2%
≤30d 207 +3.5% -6.3% 95% 4% -7.6%
≤90d 899 +4.7% -5.3% 97% 8% -7.1%
all 972 +4.6% -5.4% 97% 8% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 8% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here -14.4% 4% -15.9%
15% -22.7% 3% -24.0%
20% -30.3% 2% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$61 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.43 per $1 lost it wins $5.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$3,160
Realized+$10,321
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses939 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions14
Markets (closed)972 / 987
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$270
Trades / day26.5
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 972 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $591 $594 +$3 (+0%)
Will "Clutch" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $389 $395 +$6 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $297 $298 +$2 (+1%)
Will "Deagle" be said 5+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $269 $273 +$4 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "History" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 91¢ $297 $273 −$24 (-8%)
Will "No Kit" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $204 $208 +$4 (+2%)
Will "Jungle" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $196 $200 +$3 (+2%)
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 65¢ $297 $196 −$101 (-34%)
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $163 $164 +$1 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $153 $154 +$1 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $138 $139 +$1 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $99 $100 +$1 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $88 $89 +$0 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $74 $77 +$2 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "AWP" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? Jun 21 $246 +$6 +2%
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during Jun 20 $488 +$12 +2%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA Jun 20 $297 +$3 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $487 +$13 +3%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 20 $97 +$1 +1%
Will MrBeast say "Build" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 20 $3 $0 +1%
Will "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" be said 10+ times during the Jun 20 $312 +$6 +2%
Will "Canada" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Will "Cancer" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Will "SpaceX" be said 3+ times during the next episode of the All-In P Jun 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Will "Software" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Will "Regulatory" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcas Jun 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Will "IPO" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? Jun 20 $198 +$3 +2%
Will "Anthropic" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast Jun 20 $99 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World C Jun 19 $658 +$8 +1%
Will the announcers say "Golden Boot" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Jun 19 $290 +$5 +2%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 19 $302 +$5 +2%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick / Hat Trick" during the Canada vs Qa Jun 19 $289 +$5 +2%
Will Trump say "Stock Market" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 1 Jun 19 $293 +$4 +1%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Wor Jun 19 $320 +$6 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Worl Jun 19 $295 +$5 +2%
Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA Jun 19 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIFA Jun 18 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Medal" 5+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on June Jun 18 $206 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Oil" during Medal of Honor ceremony on June 18? Jun 18 $517 +$11 +2%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $288 +$112 +39%
Will Trump post "Pope" on Truth Social this week? Jun 18 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $195 +$5 +3%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 18 $357 +$6 +2%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo Jun 18 $395 +$5 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor Jun 17 $287 +$5 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W Jun 17 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 17 $240 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Midterm" this week? Jun 17 $250 −$6 -2%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? Jun 17 $208 −$10 -5%
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $548 +$79 +14%
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $297 +$3 +1%
Will Trump say "Prince" during G7 events? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Wonderful" this week? Jun 17 $265 +$6 +2%
Will Trump say "Africa" during G7 events? Jun 17 $584 +$11 +2%
Will Trump say "Sick" this week? Jun 17 $826 +$11 +1%
Will Trump say "Space Force" this week? Jun 17 $186 +$2 +1%
Game 4: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during G7 events? Jun 17 $527 +$11 +2%
Game 3: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Steve" or "Witkoff" during G7 events? Jun 17 $188 +$12 +6%
Will Trump say "Memorandum" during G7 events? Jun 17 $629 +$12 +2%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during G7 events? Jun 17 $638 +$21 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $99 12m
Will the announcers say "Comeback / Come Back" during the Spain vs Sau BUY Yes 99¢ $163 22m
Will "Clutch" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina BUY Yes 99¢ $23 26m
Will "Deagle" be said 5+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Final BUY Yes 99¢ $21 29m
Will "Clutch" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina BUY Yes 99¢ $99 31m
Will "Clutch" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina BUY Yes 96¢ $9 31m
Will "Clutch" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina BUY Yes 99¢ $9 31m
Will "Clutch" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Fina BUY Yes 97¢ $250 31m
Will "Deagle" be said 5+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Final BUY Yes 98¢ $249 34m
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $1 52m
Will "Jungle" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA W BUY Yes 99¢ $243 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA W BUY Yes 99¢ $54 1h
Will the announcers say "Visa" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA W BUY Yes 98¢ $295 1h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $88 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $143 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $238 1h
Will "Jungle" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 1h
Will "Jungle" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $171 1h
Will the announcers say "History" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $154 1h
Will the announcers say "Assist" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 96¢ $73 1h
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $59 1h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF BUY Yes 99¢ $297 1h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $153 1h
Will the announcers say "Header" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $138 1h
Will "No Kit" be said during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY Yes 98¢ $204 2h
Will "AWP" be said 10+ times during the IEM Cologne 2026 Grand Finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $246 2h
Will MrBeast say "Dollar" 5+ times during his next gaming YouTube vide BUY Yes 99¢ $33 23h
Will MrBeast say "Hundred" or "Thousand" or "Million" 10+ times during BUY Yes 99¢ $35 24h
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Netherlands vs Sweden FIFA BUY Yes 99¢ $96 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,160.15 · official $3,160.15 (match) · 3500 history records