Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23bf…1fab other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5 (+2%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$5
tech 46% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 25% -10.2%
≤30d 4 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 25% -10.2%
≤90d 4 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 25% -10.2%
all 4 +35.7% +22.8% 50% 25% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.8% 25% -10.2%
10% +11.0% 25% -18.8%
15% +0.3% 25% -26.6%
20% -9.5% 25% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage57d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $102 −$4 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 18 $106 −$6 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$8 +147%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $99 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $99 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $106 6d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 56d
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records