Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x23bd…4cd7 crypto 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 377d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$38 (-0%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$3
politics 25% −$2
economics 14% $0
sports 14% −$30
world 12% −$1
crypto 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -70.1%
≤30d 2 -50.0% -54.7% 50% 0% -70.1%
≤90d 5 -20.0% -27.6% 60% 0% -30.0%
all 48 -4.1% -13.3% 40% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.9 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

377d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage377d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on April 4? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? Apr 21 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 March 9-15? Mar 28 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 January 19-25? Mar 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 02 $48 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 15? Feb 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 14? Jan 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $70 December 8-14? Dec 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? Dec 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on November 4? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will Russell Wilson win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award? Nov 04 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 3? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $260 on October 17? Oct 27 $13 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $999 $0 +0%
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31? Oct 16 $988 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $124,000 and $126,000 on October Oct 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $950 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 13 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Solana above $250 on September 5? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Sep 03 $6 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.06 in July? Aug 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in July? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4600 in August? Aug 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Jul 04 $34 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Voiculescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 04 $35 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 19 $219 $0 -0%
Will Forum for Democracy win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands pa Jun 19 $215 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 09 $218 $0 -0%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $216 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 09 $222 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 03 $226 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 03 $240 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 03 $236 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Lynn Vision 44¢ $28 13d
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $52 54d
Will Jiří Lehečka be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 54d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 March 30-April 5? BUY No 100¢ $15 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,600 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $14 72d
Will Solana dip to $30 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $16 95d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 132d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 132d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $48 132d
Will XRP dip to $1.30 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $23 143d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $35 143d
Will Amazon be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $35 143d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $9 153d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 153d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 166d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $56 166d
Will XRP dip to $1.40 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 186d
Will Solana dip to $70 December 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $12 186d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $72 203d
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 203d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,400 on November 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 224d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on November 4? BUY No 100¢ $9 224d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 230d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 230d
Will the price of Solana be above $260 on October 17? BUY No 100¢ $13 241d
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31? SELL No 100¢ $987 241d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $8 241d
Will Warren Buffett be richest person on October 31? BUY No 100¢ $988 241d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $991 241d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.00 · official $29.00 (match) · 123 history records