Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:48:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23bd…12cc sports 36 markets active 1d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$579 (-30%) realized −$579 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$68
7 days−$271
14 days−$598
30 days−$598
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$627
other 1% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +15.2% +4.2% 27% 27% -33.8%
≤30d 36 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 33% -38.2%
≤90d 36 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 33% -38.2%
all 36 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 33% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 33% -38.2%
10% -21.0% 33% -44.1%
15% -28.6% 33% -49.5%
20% -35.6% 33% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$61 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$579
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $246 −$242 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $233 −$229 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $74 +$405 +550%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 +$52 +237%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $33 −$33 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $56 −$55 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $23 +$75 +324%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 11 $87 −$86 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $28 +$60 +216%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $101 −$99 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $55 +$46 +82%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 10 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $44 −$44 -100%
Georgia vs. Bahrain: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 10 $70 −$70 -100%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $51 −$51 -100%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 10 $72 −$72 -100%
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic Jun 10 $82 −$82 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 10 $90 −$90 -100%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 09 $30 +$43 +146%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $33 −$32 -99%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $24 −$24 -99%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $20 +$31 +152%
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten Jun 06 $18 +$16 +86%
Will Vanuatu win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $27 +$29 +105%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $82 −$62 -76%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $45 +$56 +124%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $22 +$23 +104%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$40 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $39 28h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $30 29h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $246 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $233 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 15¢ $74 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $74 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $22 3d
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette BUY Magda Linette 29¢ $33 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 BUY Over 49¢ $56 4d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 158.5 BUY Over 54¢ $8 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $98 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $23 4d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 18¢ $22 5d
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 37¢ $22 5d
Auger-Aliassime vs. Fucsovics: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 54¢ $87 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 31¢ $28 6d
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik BUY Jan-Lennard Struff 37¢ $101 6d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 100¢ $101 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $55 7d
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife BUY La Laguna Tenerife 26¢ $72 7d
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 40¢ $30 7d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 54¢ $33 9d
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $24 9d
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY PortlandFire 27¢ $20 9d
Roland Garros WTA (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Danilina/Krunic BUY Danilina/Krunic 24¢ $82 10d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $44 10d
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 27¢ $51 10d
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $51 10d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Maja Chwalinska 18¢ $90 10d
Roland Garros ATP (Doubles): Granollers/Zeballos vs Helioevaara/Patten SELL Granollers/Zeballos 100¢ $34 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records