Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:04:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23b9…70ef
other · 35 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$16 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage255d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 0 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $41 −$11 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $39 −$1 -4%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -15%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Nov 27 $19 −$3 -17%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $19 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $9 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $10 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bugonia win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 10 $26 $0 -0%
Mariners vs. Tigers Oct 08 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Oct 07 $30 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 05 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $26 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 27% +$1
other 24% $0
politics 19% −$4
world 14% −$13
culture 11% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 32m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $7 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $11 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $12 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 48¢ $41 4h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $38 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $5 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $34 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 79d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 88¢ $9 80d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 25¢ $6 197d
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele SELL No 25¢ $10 197d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $10 199d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 199d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 199d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 44¢ $10 199d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 44¢ $3 199d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 44¢ $5 199d
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 44¢ $2 199d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $10 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.2% -17.8% 0% 0% -21.1%
≤30d 5 -9.2% -17.8% 0% 0% -21.1%
≤90d 7 -7.8% -16.6% 0% 0% -20.7%
all 35 -1.9% -11.2% 17% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -11.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -19.9%
15% -27.5% 0% -27.7%
20% -34.6% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 193 history records