Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:10:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23b9…67b1 sports 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$69 (+2%) realized +$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate92%91W / 8L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$42
sports 18% +$73
other 18% +$25
finance 3% +$11
tech 2% +$3
culture 2% +$2
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 99 +1.6% -8.1% 92% 32% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 32% -8.1%
10% -16.9% 1% -16.9%
15% -24.9% 1% -24.9%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses91 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)99 / 100
History coverage218d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 99 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Francisco Dons Feb 19 $10 +$1 +9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 18? Feb 19 $28 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $1,098 +$2 +0%
Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France Feb 18 $23 +$3 +15%
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 18 $27 +$3 +10%
Men's Round of 16 - Switzerland vs. Italy Feb 18 $45 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 17? Feb 18 $1,000 +$1 +0%
Howard Bison vs. Delaware State Hornets Feb 17 $10 +$2 +16%
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Northwestern State Demons Feb 17 $22 +$3 +12%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 16? Feb 17 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 16? Feb 17 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M Feb 16 $13 +$2 +12%
Zuffa Boxing 3: Ajagba vs. Martin (Heavyweight, Main) Feb 16 $30 +$4 +14%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Feb 16 $37 +$3 +9%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $19 +$1 +8%
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 Feb 16 $20 +$3 +14%
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Kick-off Group A Feb 15 $38 +$2 +4%
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Italy Feb 15 $13 +$1 +4%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark Feb 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers Feb 14 $30 +$2 +5%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs UB Alma Mater (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group A Feb 14 $19 +$1 +6%
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs FALKE Esports (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group A Feb 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Will annual inflation increase by ≤2.8% in January? Feb 14 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 12? Feb 13 $20 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs ROCEAN Lords (BO3) - IstabuLAN Playoffs Feb 13 $28 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 11? Feb 12 $19 +$1 +5%
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 12 $22 +$4 +16%
Men's Group B - Sweden vs. Italy Feb 12 $25 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Lakers Feb 11 $35 +$13 +37%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 on February 10? Feb 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Houston Cougars vs. Utah Utes Feb 11 $25 +$1 +5%
LoL: S2G Esports vs PCIFIC - Game 2 Winner Feb 10 $13 +$2 +16%
Women's Group A - Canada vs. Czechia Feb 10 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase February 3-9? Feb 10 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 8? Feb 09 $10 $0 +4%
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Air Force Falcons Feb 09 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Tití Me Preguntó be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $19 +$1 +6%
Will OpenAI run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on February 7? Feb 08 $10 $0 +4%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs BoostGate Esports (+1.5) Feb 07 $13 +$2 +19%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on February 6? Feb 07 $34 +$1 +3%
Will The Great Divide - Noah Kahan be the #1 song on US Spotify this w Feb 07 $39 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on February 6? Feb 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Stage Feb 06 $10 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 4d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 8d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 11d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. San Francisco Dons BUY Gonzaga Bulldogs 92¢ $10 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,098 118d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 18? BUY Up 93¢ $8 118d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 18? BUY Up 93¢ $20 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on February 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,000 119d
Will Palo Alto Networks (PANW) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 91¢ $27 120d
Men's Round of 16 - Switzerland vs. Italy BUY Switzerland 93¢ $45 120d
Men's Round of 16 - Germany vs. France BUY Germany 87¢ $23 120d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on February 16? BUY Yes 97¢ $70 120d
Howard Bison vs. Delaware State Hornets BUY Howard Bison 86¢ $10 120d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 121d
McNeese State Cowboys vs. Northwestern State Demons BUY McNeese State Cowboys 89¢ $22 121d
Zuffa Boxing 3: Ajagba vs. Martin (Heavyweight, Main) BUY Ajagba 88¢ $30 121d
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M BUY Yes 89¢ $13 122d
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY Yes 92¢ $37 122d
RB Leipzig vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $20 122d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $19 122d
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs UB Alma Mater (BO3) - LES Kick-off Group A BUY Movistar KOI Fénix 96¢ $38 122d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 96¢ $29 123d
Men's Group B - Finland vs. Italy BUY Finland 96¢ $13 123d
Men's Group C - USA vs. Denmark BUY USA 95¢ $40 123d
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Loyola Chicago Ramblers BUY Saint Louis Billikens 95¢ $30 123d
LoL: Movistar KOI Fénix vs FALKE Esports (BO1) - LES Kick-off Group A BUY Movistar KOI Fénix 93¢ $25 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.65 · official $99.65 (match) · 212 history records