Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x23b9…afce other 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 576d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-0%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate33%16W / 32L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$4
other 33% −$19
sports 20% −$5
crypto 10% −$8
economics 1% $0
culture 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -20.8%
≤30d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -20.8%
≤90d 7 -10.3% -18.8% 43% 29% -12.7%
all 48 -2.6% -11.9% 33% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 8% -9.8%
10% -20.3% 2% -18.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,041) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

576d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses16 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage576d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 24 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $38 −$1 -2%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? May 25 $13 $0 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? Apr 26 $10 +$1 +12%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 25 $17 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28? Mar 25 $12 +$1 +6%
Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? Mar 25 $21 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 22 $13 $0 -1%
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 22 $16 $0 +2%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 28 $29 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 23 $29 $0 -0%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30? Dec 23 $18 +$3 +16%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September? Nov 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 26 $28 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before September? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 620k+ BTC before August? Aug 28 $5 +$2 +33%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will Zohran Madani’s vote share be between 28% and 32% in the first ro Jul 28 $6 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jun 25 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the May 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%? Jun 25 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? May 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.22-1.26ºC in April 2025? May 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 20 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Will Whitney Tilson win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C Apr 20 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before April? Apr 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Szymon Hołownia be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $1,510 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $1,534 −$9 -1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.50 in February? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Feb 25 $1,178 −$6 -0%
Will Waldemar Witkowski be the next President of Poland? Feb 25 $1,179 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Feb 25 $1,180 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? Jan 18 $53 $0 -1%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 18 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Dec 17 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Nottingham Forest wins the Premier League? Dec 17 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 17 $1,046 −$2 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Nov 25 $51 −$5 -10%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Nov 25 $51 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $35 1h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 30d
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/25-5/31) BUY No 85¢ $10 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 74¢ $38 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 74¢ $38 30d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%? BUY No 96¢ $13 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 100¢ $41 59d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $41 59d
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? BUY No 89¢ $10 91d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 91d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 91d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $650b and $660b on February 28? BUY No 95¢ $12 122d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL No 79¢ $13 122d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 80¢ $13 122d
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $16 147d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 98¢ $29 147d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 98¢ $29 147d
Will FvD be part of the next Government of the Netherlands? BUY No 99¢ $21 183d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL Yes 99¢ $29 183d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 183d
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30? BUY No 86¢ $18 211d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $18 211d
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $18 211d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? BUY No 100¢ $18 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $26 241d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 99¢ $26 241d
Will the US add more than 125k jobs in September? BUY No 94¢ $10 271d
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? SELL Yes 98¢ $28 271d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.98 · official $10.98 (match) · 101 history records