Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23b5…221a
crypto · 455 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$496 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$452 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized−$452
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses248 / 206
Open positions1
Markets (closed)454 / 455
History coverage26d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 454 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$294
7 days−$349
14 days+$8
30 days−$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+69%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $28 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $130 −$43 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $55 +$22 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $145 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $40 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $102 −$48 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$17 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$6 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $43 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $42 −$15 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $86 −$8 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $90 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $68 −$56 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $128 +$32 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $103 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $193 −$59 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $197 −$126 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $130 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$13 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $131 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $74 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $159 −$15 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $219 −$28 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $68 −$43 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $140 +$109 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $147 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $10 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $9 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $8 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -1.2% -10.6% 48% 34% -15.1%
≤30d 454 +2.1% -7.7% 55% 47% -11.1%
≤90d 454 +2.1% -7.7% 55% 47% -11.1%
all 454 +2.1% -7.7% 55% 47% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 47% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 40% -19.6%
15% -24.6% 30% -27.3%
20% -32.0% 19% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.81 · official $6.58 · 1525 history records