Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:39:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x23b2…8992 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate62%37W / 23L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$5
other 25% +$3
politics 8% −$2
crypto 6% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.2% -11.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 6% -8.8%
≤90d 16 +0.9% -8.7% 50% 6% -8.8%
all 60 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 5% -8.8%
10% -17.8% 5% -17.5%
15% -25.7% 3% -25.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.61 per $1 lost it wins $2.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses37 / 23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)60 / 62
History coverage474d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 95¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 72¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $2 $0 -7%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $48 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $89 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 -12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $88 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $14 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 +$1 +31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $28 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Jun 02 $13 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by over 8%? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 23–30? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 23 $5 $0 +5%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 22 $7 $0 +4%
Will Hwang Kyo-ahn win 3rd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 22 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? May 17 $1 $0 +38%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $6 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 14 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect May 10 $5 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 09 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Matteo Zuppi be the next pope? May 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 06 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $3 $0 +4%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? Apr 17 $9 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dyson Daniels win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Apr 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in April? Apr 14 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $48 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $48 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $24 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $48 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $48 38h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $49 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $48 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $39 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $18 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $6 16d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $19 16d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $1 17d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $1 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $44 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $42 17d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $1 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 18d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $0 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $39 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $41 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes $2 19d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes $3 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.59 · official $43.59 (match) · 168 history records