Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:54:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23af…194c world 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 346d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%28W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 17% −$2
sports 14% −$1
politics 14% −$1
crypto 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
finance 2% +$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.6% 44% 0% -11.5%
≤30d 33 +59.2% +44.1% 42% 3% -9.5%
≤90d 77 +24.0% +12.2% 32% 3% -9.6%
all 96 +19.2% +7.9% 29% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 3% -9.6%
10% -2.5% 1% -18.2%
15% -11.9% 1% -26.1%
20% -20.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

346d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses28 / 68
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage346d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 40¢ 48¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+19%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $72 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $41 −$4 -9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $84 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $144 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $141 −$15 -10%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $30 −$9 -29%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $106 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $67 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $206 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $15 $0 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $67 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $131 −$5 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $194 +$6 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $103 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $286 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 30 $72 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $114 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $104 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $106 −$14 -13%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $113 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $34 +$1 +3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $132 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $2 +$40 +2133%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $72 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the May 18 $4 $0 +1%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $272 −$1 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $72 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $69 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $69 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $76 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $70 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $278 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $110 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $29 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $73 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $72 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $12 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $25 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $35 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $76 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $84 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $84 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $52 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $84 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $21 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $18 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $55 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $12 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $98 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $98 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $87 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $20 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.24 · official $0.00 · 416 history records