Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

23 0x23ae…60a6 other 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized −$4 · open +$22

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%6W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$54per market

Trades / day15.6pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-49.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	-44.7%	-49.9%	40%	40%	-9.2%
≤30d	15	-44.7%	-49.9%	40%	40%	-9.2%
≤90d	15	-44.7%	-49.9%	40%	40%	-9.2%
all	15	-44.7%	-49.9%	40%	40%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover15.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-49.9%	40%	-9.2%
10%	-54.7%	40%	-17.9%
15%	-59.1%	13%	-25.8%
20%	-63.1%	0%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -39% → late -50% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$43 vs −$29 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.01 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$144

Realized−$4

Unrealized+$22

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses6 / 9

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 24

History coverage2d

Avg bet$54

Trades / day15.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	86¢	$110	$132	+$22 (+20%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	No	56¢	60¢	$6	$6	+$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan?	Yes	4¢	3¢	$2	$2	−$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Yes	25¢	18¢	$2	$1	−$1 (-26%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$65	+$19	+30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$402	+$98	+24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$202	+$96	+48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	Jun 16	$30	−$30	-99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	Jun 16	$30	+$15	+50%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	Jun 16	$5	+$1	+32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	Jun 15	$151	−$127	-84%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$101	+$31	+30%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan?	BUY Yes	4¢	$2	17m
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	25¢	$2	18m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2	18m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	56¢	$6	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$111	1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	41¢	$20	2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	82¢	$50	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	59¢	$51	2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$15	3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	80¢	$402	7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$298	7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France vs. Senegal end in a	BUY	4¢	$5	10h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	10h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	12¢	$5	10h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	69¢	$30	10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$202	10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	SELL Team Vitality	100¢	$45	11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play	BUY Team Vitality	66¢	$30	12h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	SELL New Zealand	100¢	$6	25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	26¢	$10	25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	40¢	$10	25h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5)	BUY New Zealand	75¢	$5	27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	SELL Spain	13¢	$24	35h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	49¢	$10	43h
Spread: Spain (-1.5)	BUY Spain	79¢	$151	45h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Arg	BUY	27¢	$15	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.92 · official $194.17 · 34 history records