Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:27:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23ab…d124 sports 179 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate7%13W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$2
politics 24% −$3
other 21% −$5
economics 7% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
world 4% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 4 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 178 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses13 / 165
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage174d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 98¢ 98¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 25 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $91 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $40 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $138 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 20 $131 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $45 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 20 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 20 $221 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 20 $38 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February? Feb 19 $16 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $134 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $67 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $135 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Taylor Fritz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 98¢ $35 2h
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $36 13d
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $37 13d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $40 20d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $40 21d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 93¢ $33 33d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 94¢ $34 33d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $34 40d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $34 43d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 126d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 127d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $44 127d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 127d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $44 127d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $44 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $11 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $30 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $41 127d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 127d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $37 127d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $37 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $40 127d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $40 127d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 127d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 127d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $37 127d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $37 127d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $41 127d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $41 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.90 · official $34.90 (match) · 548 history records