Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x23aa…3f1f sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+4%) realized +$173 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate63%42W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$76
7 days−$42
14 days−$28
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$116
other 23% −$41
world 10% −$8
crypto 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.4% -16.2% 83% 25% -12.2%
≤30d 25 +13.3% +2.5% 80% 36% -7.7%
≤90d 32 +4.9% -5.1% 75% 38% -6.7%
all 67 -2.4% -11.7% 63% 34% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 34% -8.3%
10% -20.1% 25% -17.1%
15% -27.9% 10% -25.1%
20% -34.9% 7% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses42 / 25
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage162d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $99 +$11 +11%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $100 +$7 +7%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$24 +24%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $200 +$5 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $200 +$16 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$11 +21%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$6 +12%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$9 +9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $130 −$18 -14%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$25 +488%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $200 +$12 +6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $50 +$15 +31%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $101 +$26 +26%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $100 +$15 +14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Wizards vs. Pelicans May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Lakers May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $30 +$12 +40%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $185 +$9 +5%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $20 +$12 +61%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Pacers vs. Lakers Mar 07 $151 +$26 +17%
Pelicans vs. Lakers Mar 04 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Lakers vs. Knicks Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 03 $155 −$21 -14%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Mar 03 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 02 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 02 $3 +$2 +82%
Kings vs. Lakers Mar 02 $132 +$9 +7%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Mar 02 $124 +$8 +6%
US strikes Iraq by February 28? Mar 01 $135 −$10 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $100 1h
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 90¢ $99 26h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $100 29h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 97¢ $200 29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Panama 74¢ $50 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 90¢ $50 3d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 97¢ $200 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 6d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 92¢ $200 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 7d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 99¢ $300 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 11d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 11d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 91¢ $100 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $2 12d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 75¢ $30 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 37¢ $30 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $5 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 94¢ $200 17d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 76¢ $50 20d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 26¢ $5 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 79¢ $101 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 87¢ $100 34d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 60¢ $10 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 151 history records