Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:34:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23a8…3a9f crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$162 (+13%) realized +$177 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%76W / 60L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day24.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 56% +0.8%
≤30d 136 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 56% +0.8%
≤90d 136 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 56% +0.8%
all 136 +9.2% -1.2% 56% 56% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 56% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 56% -8.8%
15% -19.3% 55% -17.6%
20% -27.2% 45% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$177
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses76 / 60
Open positions2
Markets (closed)136 / 138
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day24.8
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$22 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$17 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 +$52 +263%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$22 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$12 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$10 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$20 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$10 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $8 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $11 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $9 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $8 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 220 history records