Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

23 0x23a7…224c sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$195 · open −$168

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate94%15W / 1L

Drawdown2%max

Avg bet$452per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$373now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$13

7 days+$13

14 days+$14

30 days+$14

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+1.2%	-8.4%	50%	0%	-8.4%
≤30d	4	+0.7%	-8.9%	75%	0%	-8.7%
≤90d	14	+0.3%	-9.2%	93%	0%	-9.2%
all	16	+0.4%	-9.2%	94%	0%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.2%	0%	-9.2%
10%	-17.9%	0%	-17.9%
15%	-25.8%	0%	-25.8%
20%	-33.1%	0%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×50.24 per $1 lost it wins $50.24

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage

Net worth$373

Realized+$195

Unrealized−$168

Win rate (resolved)94%

Wins / losses15 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage97d

Avg bet$452

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown2%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	T1 Academy	95¢	66¢	$542	$373	−$168 (-31%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$534	+$13	+2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Jun 15	$528	−$1	-0%
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election	Jun 04	$214	$0	+0%
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?	Jun 04	$320	+$1	+0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	May 18	$530	+$4	+1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8?	May 09	$520	$0	+0%
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026	May 01	$229	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	May 01	$300	$0	+0%
Will "Anaconda" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	Apr 22	$529	+$1	+0%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers	Apr 13	$528	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150?	Apr 11	$528	+$1	+0%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu	Apr 09	$527	+$1	+0%
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31?	Apr 01	$527	+$1	+0%
Bucks vs. Clippers	Mar 24	$526	+$1	+0%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	Mar 19	$286	+$3	+1%
Cavaliers vs. Magic	Mar 12	$522	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	BUY T1 Academy	95¢	$451	1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	BUY T1 Academy	91¢	$12	1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo	BUY T1 Academy	95¢	$80	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	97¢	$534	11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	SELL No	100¢	$527	2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	BUY No	100¢	$528	3d
Will Lee Chul-gyu win the 2026 Gangwon Province gubernatorial election	BUY No	100¢	$214	21d
Will Shannon Lundgren be the Republican Nominee for IA-02?	BUY No	100¢	$320	21d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	BUY Spurs	99¢	$530	32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 8?	BUY Yes	100¢	$520	42d
Will xAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026	BUY No	100¢	$229	50d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$300	50d
Will "Anaconda" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?	BUY No	100¢	$529	57d
Wizards vs. Cavaliers	BUY Cavaliers	100¢	$528	65d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of April 6 above $150?	BUY Yes	100¢	$528	69d
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu	BUY No	100¢	$527	76d
Will MrBeast hit 125 billion views by March 31?	BUY No	100¢	$527	83d
Bucks vs. Clippers	BUY Clippers	100¢	$526	85d
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies	BUY Grizzlies	99¢	$286	90d
Cavaliers vs. Magic	BUY Magic	100¢	$522	97d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.47 · official $373.47 (match) · 35 history records