Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:54:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23a6…c855
sports · 43 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$50 +9%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$68 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses24 / 17
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage74d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 2 History 41 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$56
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $19 +$5 +26%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $84 +$20 +24%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 14 $36 −$12 -34%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jun 14 $24 −$20 -85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $50 +$52 +104%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +113%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $41 +$13 +31%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $2 +$2 +78%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 $0 +30%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $31 +$20 +65%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $15 +$16 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1 +$2 +163%
Raptors vs. Celtics Apr 05 $20 $0 -1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $19 −$7 -39%
Will SC Freiburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 04 $1 +$10 +730%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $19 −$1 -4%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 04 $42 −$9 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 04 $23 +$7 +30%
Spurs vs. Clippers Apr 03 $5 +$4 +88%
Cavaliers vs. Warriors Apr 03 $14 $0 +1%
Timberwolves vs. Pistons Apr 03 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 02 $3 +$1 +39%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 02 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Apr 02 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Apr 02 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $1 +$1 +65%
Hawks vs. Magic Apr 02 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 01 $12 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 01 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% +$42
sports 38% +$23
crypto 6% +$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 16m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $21 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $13 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $84 2h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 19¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 9h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $6 9h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $5 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $102 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $50 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 38h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $2 2d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Seattle Mariners 49¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $14 3d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $28 3d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 46¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 4d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score SELL No 89¢ $4 4d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $2 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 69¢ $2 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $2 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays SELL Tampa Bay Rays 82¢ $52 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $31 4d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 48¢ $15 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -15.1% -23.2% 50% 50% +4.9%
≤30d 21 -6.6% -15.5% 52% 52% +5.4%
≤90d 41 +18.9% +7.6% 59% 49% +1.7%
all 41 +18.9% +7.6% 59% 49% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 49% +1.7%
10% -2.7% 44% -8.1%
15% -12.1% 32% -16.9%
20% -20.8% 22% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.08 · official $10.08 (match) · 101 history records