Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23a4…a4ee crypto 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$73 (+9%) realized +$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%53W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$31
sports 3% +$8
other 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 31% -11.9%
≤30d 67 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 31% -11.9%
≤90d 67 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 31% -11.9%
all 67 +3.6% -6.3% 79% 31% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 31% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 19% -20.3%
15% -23.4% 18% -28.0%
20% -30.9% 13% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses53 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 67
History coverage3d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $77 −$61 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$22 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$15 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$9 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$8 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$8 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 54¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $41 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 154 history records