Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23a4…25ef other 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$27
14 days−$47
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$37
politics 24% −$11
sports 18% −$12
crypto 9% −$8
economics 4% −$5
finance 4% −$2
culture 3% −$3
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.5% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 64 -1.0% -10.5% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 118 -0.7% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.0%
all 135 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 121
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage101d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 −$3 -4%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $114 −$1 -1%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 17 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $120 −$2 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $118 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 15 $50 −$2 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $91 $0 -0%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $128 −$2 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $43 −$2 -6%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $165 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $96 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -4%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $256 −$5 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 11 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 11 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $59 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $90 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $101 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $204 −$2 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $236 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $88 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $203 −$4 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $118 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $46 $0 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $35 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $204 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 04 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $61 −$1 -1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $139 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $125 −$2 -2%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 02 $51 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $251 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $66 53m
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $47 1h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 6h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $56 7h
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 14h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $65 14h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $66 21h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $53 22h
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $53 30h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $43 31h
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $43 39h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $50 39h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $51 44h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $55 44h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $56 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $49 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 92¢ $49 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL No 95¢ $42 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 95¢ $42 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $55 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $54 3d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $54 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 3d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $45 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $48 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 96¢ $50 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $42 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.12 · official $66.12 (match) · 493 history records