Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:41:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23a2…657c
crypto · 280 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2,183 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2,278 · open +$94
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,114
Realized−$2,278
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses213 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)268 / 280
History coverage157d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 12 History 268 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$109
14 days+$111
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? No 80¢ 81¢ $493 $503 +$10 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $360 $374 +$15 (+4%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 76¢ 89¢ $300 $347 +$47 (+16%)
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $184 $186 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $90 $100 +$10 (+11%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $98 $99 +$1 (+1%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 80¢ 79¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? No 94¢ 92¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83 $90 +$8 (+9%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 76¢ 82¢ $76 $82 +$6 (+9%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on January 12? Down 40¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Knicks vs. 76ers 76ers 58¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $946 $0 −$946 (-100%)
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings Punjab Kings 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Powell say "Sorry" during January press conference? No 29¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Suns vs. Pacers Pacers 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Celtics Celtics 63¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $680 $0 −$680 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 13 $40 +$4 +10%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 Jun 09 $50 +$4 +9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$111 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5 Jun 06 $50 +$5 +10%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 Jun 04 $50 +$7 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $105 +$3 +3%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 May 31 $50 +$17 +34%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? May 22 $105 +$5 +5%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 20 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 17 $199 +$1 +0%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $20 −$20 -99%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) beat quarterly earnings? May 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings? May 05 $100 +$4 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 03 $190 +$10 +5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m May 03 $194 +$6 +3%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Punjab Kings Apr 26 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 18 $9 +$1 +6%
Will SoFi Technologies (SOFI) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 202 Apr 02 $5,000 −$36 -1%
Will the Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the Mar 24 $376 $0 -0%
Will the Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate Mar 24 $470 $0 -0%
Heat vs. Celtics Mar 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 21 $15 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 20 $20 +$2 +11%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 20 $20 +$6 +28%
Warriors vs. Celtics Mar 19 $384 +$35 +9%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 17 $30 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Suns vs. Pacers Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Grizzlies vs. 76ers Mar 10 $100 +$19 +19%
Fed rate cut by March 2026 meeting? Mar 06 $919 +$57 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $14 −$5 -38%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 28 $99 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Feb 26 $367 +$33 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026 Feb 21 $100 $0 +0%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 20? Feb 21 $400 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026? Feb 20 $100 +$1 +1%
Rockets vs. Hornets Feb 20 $64 +$36 +56%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 18 $276 +$3 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 18 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Bradley Braves vs. Southern Illinois Salukis Feb 16 $100 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Feb 16 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$968
finance 12% −$1,481
sports 9% +$135
economics 3% +$105
other 3% +$16
world 2% +$52
tech 1% −$39
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $165 51m
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $10 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 BUY Over 91¢ $40 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $51 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $51 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 196.5 BUY Over 92¢ $50 5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 194.5 BUY Over 91¢ $50 8d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $130 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 199.5 BUY Over 88¢ $50 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Over 88¢ $30 10d
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $100 11d
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $202 11d
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 11d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 204.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 20d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 72¢ $30 20d
AI bubble burst in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $101 24d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 75¢ $10 25d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 95¢ $105 28d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $10 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 50¢ $10 34d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 81¢ $10 34d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 58¢ $20 36d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 94¢ $20 36d
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 40d
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 40d
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $12 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.9% -3.3% 75% 25% +39.5%
≤30d 13 -5.8% -14.8% 77% 31% +0.2%
≤90d 34 -13.0% -21.3% 65% 26% -9.8%
all 268 -9.9% -18.5% 79% 17% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 17% -11.8%
10% -26.3% 12% -20.2%
15% -33.4% 6% -28.0%
20% -39.9% 4% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,114.32 · official $2,114.38 (match) · 948 history records