Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
23 0x239c…2852 crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+1%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%124W / 5L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$4
other 31% +$2
politics 12% $0
weather 3% $0
world 3% +$25
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 24 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 100 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.3%
all 129 +0.3% -9.2% 96% 1% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 1% -8.6%
10% -17.9% 1% -17.4%
15% -25.8% 1% -25.4%
20% -33.1% 1% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×8.72 per $1 lost it wins $8.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses124 / 5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)129 / 133
History coverage552d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $43 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 27 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 26? May 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 26 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 24? May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will "COWARD by Lukas DHONT" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film Fe May 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? May 24 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $45 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 21? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 20? May 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 21 $61 $0 +0%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Haotong Li win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the Andalusia regional election? May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Serbia be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Italy be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $25 $0 +0%
Will Malta be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15? May 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar May 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 12? May 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will April 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 May 4-10? May 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 4-10? May 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 4-10? May 11 $42 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation BUY No 100¢ $29 16d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $24 18d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 19d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 100¢ $25 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 20d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $21 21d
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 22d
Will National Dialogue Party win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese p BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $21 23d
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 23d
Will Islamic Group win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamenta BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese p BUY No 100¢ $27 24d
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $14 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 25d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 25d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 26d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $17 26d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 28d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $70,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $13 29d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $27 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.96 · official $88.96 (match) · 275 history records