Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x239b…21c8 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$69 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,157now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$12
other 36% +$39
sports 5% −$4
crypto 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +35.9% +23.0% 100% 100% +23.0%
≤90d 4 +36.0% +23.0% 75% 75% +17.5%
all 4 +36.0% +23.0% 75% 75% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.0% 75% +17.5%
10% +11.2% 50% +6.2%
15% +0.5% 50% -4.0%
20% -9.4% 25% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$1 · ×18.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×56.94 per $1 lost it wins $56.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$1,157
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)4 / 14
History coverage81d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 89¢ $722 $741 +$19 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 21¢ $137 $156 +$19 (+14%)
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $112 $88 −$24 (-21%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $55 $61 +$6 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? Yes 48¢ 39¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-20%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 23¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $6 $1 −$5 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $21 +$7 +36%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $31 +$37 +120%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 28 $151 +$18 +12%
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.50% and 4.99%? Apr 10 $5 −$1 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $19 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $44 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $58 3d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 15d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 15d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 15d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 29¢ $11 28d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 30d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $44 30d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $421 30d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $201 30d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $10 30d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 86¢ $50 31d
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 36d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 93¢ $69 39d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 72¢ $68 44d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 60¢ $58 44d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $11 44d
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? BUY Yes 49¢ $39 45d
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? BUY Yes 55¢ $31 46d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 74¢ $12 59d
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.00% and 5.49%? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 59d
Will Flamengo win Brazil Série A? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 59d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 73¢ $9 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.95 · official $1,156.95 (match) · 56 history records