Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2397…d78a crypto 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$106 (-1%) realized −$81 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%62W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$143
7 days+$191
14 days−$761
30 days−$710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$996
other 4% +$190
sports 1% +$118
politics 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +29.9% +17.5% 100% 100% +25.0%
≤30d 92 -13.7% -21.9% 60% 41% -14.7%
≤90d 103 -13.3% -21.6% 60% 44% -14.3%
all 103 -13.3% -21.6% 60% 44% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 44% -14.3%
10% -29.1% 28% -22.5%
15% -35.9% 23% -30.0%
20% -42.2% 13% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$70 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$81
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses62 / 41
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage71d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $299 +$137 +46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $152 +$49 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $71 +$10 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $602 −$254 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $347 +$66 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $354 −$298 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $151 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $303 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $153 +$45 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $312 +$29 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $308 +$19 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $155 −$50 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $155 +$78 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $244 +$68 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 11 $155 −$145 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$16 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$98 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 11 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $152 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $305 +$108 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $305 +$44 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 11 $151 +$14 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $310 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $203 −$50 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $203 −$44 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $154 +$82 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $151 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $152 +$29 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $150 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $207 −$33 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $50 +$6 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 62¢ $57 59m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $299 18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $200 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $71 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $300 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $314 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $302 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $53 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $388 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $294 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $302 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $50 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $160 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $151 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $303 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $198 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $153 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $341 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $312 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $327 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $308 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 254 history records